Using causal inference to disentangle forest disturbance interactions under climate change

About the talk

Interactions among forest disturbances are leading to unprecedented mortality and forest transitions. Despite their global impacts, the relationships among these disturbances—and their response to rising temperatures—are not well understood. Using insights from causal inference and existing research, we present a typology of disturbance interactions. We clarify the distinction between interactions and statistical interaction effects, explore how climate change can amplify or dampen these effects, and discuss the challenges posed by nonlinear effects and feedbacks. Our findings underscore that climate change will have transformative impacts on forest disturbance interactions worldwide.